After taking yesterday’s pause, the market has again gained the momentum of the previous session in a bullish way, gaining nearly 105 points today and closing at 23,591.95 making the challenge to 23800 for tomorrow Trade setup.
Today, the market opened on a weak global cue. After that, it gained momentum quickly, with continuous 5-minute upside candlesticks, which pushed the price near the 2,600 level. After reaching the 2,600 level, the market spent the entire day around this level and finally closed at 2,601, which is above 2,600.”
Global market analysis
Yesterday, Trump announced auto tariffs, bringing trade wars even closer to a breaking point. Trump stated that a 25% tariff would be applied to those exporting automobile products to the US. This is going to be a major concern for the EU, as it is heavily involved in this business and has strong trade relations with the US.”
“Trump has also stated that the upcoming tariff would not be reciprocal. It is going to be more lenient compared to a reciprocal tariff. This means that, at some point, the tariff could be changed or adjusted in a reciprocal manner. So, it will be important to see how things develop based on these tariff decisions.”
Yesterday, NASDAQ showed a downside movement, closing 1.83% lower. One of the key points here is that, as we discussed in the previous block, the 19,943 level is crucial because NASDAQ had struggled multiple times to cross this level. However, in the previous session, due to the impactful announcement of a 25% auto tariff by Trump, the NASDAQ moved sharply down and closed below this important 19,943 level.
This makes it difficult for NASDAQ to rise further in the near term. In the coming days, it will be important to see how the auto tariff situation unfolds and how the reciprocal tariff decision, expected on April 2nd—referred to by Trump as ‘Liberation Day’—will impact the market and how NASDAQ will react to it.”
Domestic market analysis for Trade setup
Continuous buying from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and sustained support from banks are making Nifty 50’s movement more stable for now. Additionally, one key factor is that there are currently no major sellers in the market during this period. FIIs are consistently buying Indian equities, which is boosting overall investor confidence. Globally, the situation is not very favorable, as yesterday Trump announced new tariffs on various countries. However, this tariff war is unlikely to have much of an impact on India, as India does not export significant automobile parts to the US.
Therefore, it is not a major concern for Indian auto companies. But today, Tata Motors declined nearly 6% because it has a strong business presence in the US. The company has not yet clarified how it plans to handle the possible impact of these tariffs. Most likely, they are waiting to see how the situation develops and will react accordingly.”
Another positive factor is that USD/INR is showing stability and not making significant moves, which indicates that even amid the ongoing tariff war, the Indian Rupee is not weakening against the US Dollar. This is a positive sign for Indian equities. If the INR had weakened due to the tariff war and the Dollar had strengthened sharply against it, it could have been negative for the market.
However, one concern that is now emerging is from the commodity market, as gold is approaching an all-time high and silver is also following the same path. This has become a concern for the equity market, as historically, equities and commodities tend to move in opposite directions.”
Option Chain Analysis
As the Nifty contract expiry is going to be changed from Thursday to Monday every week, starting from next week, the Option Chain is currently witnessing lower volumes compared to usual. If we analyse it closely, the 23,800 level appears to be a strong resistance, as it has one of the highest call writer positions with nearly 45,000 contracts.
On the other hand, the highest put writer positions are around the 23,500 level, with approximately 53,985 contracts, indicating strong support at that level. This creates a possible 300-point range for Nifty in the next couple of days. So, in the short term, we may expect Nifty to move between 23,800 and 23,500.”
Nifty 50 prediction
Today, the market made a movement of nearly 100 points, which indicates that the market is adjusting around this level. As we have analyzed over the past couple of days, the market had shown a steep movement toward the end of the previous sessions. Usually, such sharp movements are not easily digested by the market. However, after yesterday’s fall, the market today tried to recover those levels.
If we look at the intraday timeframe, an evening star candlestick pattern has formed, which indicates a possible reversal — something we had discussed in the previous block. Considering this, the 23,800 level is likely to act as a strong resistance in the near term, especially as NASDAQ showed downside movement and we are also witnessing weakness in European markets.
This raises concerns about the market’s ability to sustain above the crucial resistance level. It will be important to watch tomorrow’s trade setup closely and see whether FIIs continue their support, as their activity will play a key role in the market’s sustainability.”
Conclusion
Currently, the global cues are playing a major role in driving the market sentiment. Trump has announced new auto tariffs, and now the key question is how other countries, especially the European Union — which has a significant auto trade relationship with the US — will react.
Whether they will impose counter-tariffs or respond aggressively remains to be seen. This could complicate the overall situation. Technically, the 23,800 level is crucial, and breaking this level will not be easy. Going forward, market movement will largely depend on how the European Union and other countries react around April 2nd, which is being seen as an important date. Until then, it will likely be difficult for Nifty to cross the 23,800 level.”
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