The market is creating a highly uncertain situation for both long-term traders and those making a few short-term trades based on various analyses. The market reacts to global cues, and today we can see the effect of those global cues in the market’s trading setup.”
Today, the market opened more than 1100 points down and experienced a massive fall following the Asian markets. But after that, it touched the previous level, which the market had made in the earlier phase, nearly at the low of 21,964. After that, the market found immediate support at this level and bounced back.
In just a couple of candles, it covered the points from around 21,875 to nearly 22,238. After that, it showed a range-bound movement throughout the day, indicating some positive signs. The session ended with strength from the bulls, and the market closed near the day’s high, around 22,244.”
Global market analysis
Trump additional 50 tariffs on China
Trump has recently announced additional tariffs on China, nearly a 50% hike. It is a form of escalation in the ongoing trade war. For now, Trump has stated—repeating it almost daily—that if any country retaliates against U.S. tariffs, there will be retaliation from the Trump administration as well.
Now, Trump has announced that if China does not remove the tariffs they imposed last week—nearly 40%—then the Trump administration will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports starting from April 9th. This marks a growing escalation between the two major economies of the world.”
China countermeasure steps on tariffs
China has also announced a stimulus package to counter the U.S. tariffs. They are planning to implement the package in the country very soon. Additionally, they have instructed their trade union to analyze the impact of the U.S. tariffs, as the situation is becoming a kind of trade war zone between the two major economies.
US on trade deal negotiation
The U.S. administration has stated that more than 50 countries are approaching the U.S. to secure favorable deals for Americans. Now, the focus is on who will take the first step toward a trade agreement. President Trump is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu soon to discuss a trade deal, as well as the ongoing Middle East.
Nasdaq moment
Global cues and amid recession fears raised by Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, the NASDAQ is showing highly uncertain movements. It opened around 16,771 and bounced up to 18,191.50. The index is experiencing significant ups and downs, along with speculative trades. Now, the key point is how the wall trade will react to this situation for the coming trade setup, as well as how the European Union and other countries might retaliate.
Domestic market analysis
Impact of the global cue
Following the Asian and global markets, Nifty also moved downward, falling nearly 3.24% today. One key factor that will make the upcoming trade setup crucial is how significant the impact of the global tariff war will be. Reports suggest that India is likely to be less affected by it. .
Some projections also indicate that India’s GDP growth will remain stable, with no major uncertainty in trade policy or inflation. This is a positive sign for the Indian economy, which relies heavily on internal consumption rather than exports. In contrast, countries like China, which are more export-dependent, are expected to be more severely impacted.
Repo rate impact
The repo rate meeting is scheduled for this season, and it’s expected to have a significant impact on banks, the NBFC sector, and the overall economy. Today, we saw a sharp correction in the banking sector—Bank Nifty fell by around 3.19%, mainly due to global cues.
However, there are now some positive expectations, such as a possible 0.25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy, which could be crucial. This cut would help lower the cost of borrowing for Indian consumers and, in turn, contribute positively to the economy. Another key point in the policy will be the outlook for future repo rate moves. There should ideally be no major adjustments from the RBI governor due to the global tariff situation. If the RBI sees any impact and takes drastic steps, it could negatively affect the market.”
FII&DII activity
Amid the ongoing tariff war, the FII has remained consistent in its stance, while continuing to act as a net seller. Today, FIIs sold nearly ₹9,000 crore in the Indian equity market, whereas DIIs bought around ₹12,000 crore. This strong DII buying helped drive a market recovery after a sharp decline of nearly 1100 points, with the index rebounding over 500 points from the day’s low. This recovery was largely supported by DII activity.
Now, although Asian markets are witnessing a drastic fall due to the tariff war, one significant factor to note is that FIIs may view India as a better investment opportunity. While India will be impacted, the impact is expected to be much lower compared to other economies. This could foster a positive sentiment among FIIs and encourage reinvestment into Indian equities. Therefore, the upcoming trade setup will be a key point to watch in this context.”
Option chain analysis for tomorrow trade setup
As the market remains in a speculative zone, it is showing significant movements. Because of this, the option chain is reflecting low volumes in both option buying and selling. Analysing this, we can infer that traders are anticipating increased volatility in the upcoming trade setups, with potential for both upside and downside moves.
Due to this uncertainty, there are fewer option writers in the market, as option selling involves significant risk with limited profit potential. If we look at the nearby contract volumes, we see that the 22,200 strike has only around 33,000 contracts. On the support side, the 22,000 strike shows strong support with considerable option writing—around 1,02,962 contracts.
At the same time, the 22,500 strike has about 58,143 contracts, which is not a very high volume. However, the strong put writing at the 22,000 level indicates that option writers are viewing this as a solid support zone.”
Nifty 50 prediction
The drastic fall in the market has broken through all nearby support levels. Now, one of the keys supports that has held up over the last couple of trading sessions is at the 22,000 level. Today, the market touched that level but immediately bounced back, showing a choppy movement throughout the day and eventually closing above 22,000—around the 22,161 level.
Now, in analysing Nifty, we do have the technical level at 22,000, but one important thing to note is how other countries will react—because at this point, it’s not just about technical. As we saw today, the market opened nearly 1100 points down, so relying solely on technical levels isn’t effective in this scenario.
Right now, it’s crucial to observe how the European Union responds, especially considering the U.S. has announced an additional 50% tariff if China doesn’t remove the 34% tariffs. The market is likely to factor all of this in, and if tensions escalate further between the U.S. and the European Union, we could see major volatility—both upside and downside—in Nifty as well.
Conclusion
As we discussed in previous blogs, this is a time to closely observe global developments, because it all comes down to how the future market reactions will unfold. We need to analyse how major investment firms like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs respond to the current situation, how the Fed’s decisions turn out, and whether major economies choose to retaliate or negotiate trade deals.
All these factors need to be monitored to help forecast the upcoming trade setup. For now, the 22,000 level remains crucial. If the market closes below this level at any point, we may see increased uncertainty ahead.
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