Support for Nifty50 is acting as a strong base, as the market exhibited both bullish and bearish movements today. The market opened slightly gap-down and then formed a strong bearish candle, reaching a low near 24,525. After that, it showed a consistent recovery from the low and ended with an overall positive gain. By the close, it reached a good level near 24,716, establishing strong support around 24,600.
Global Market Analysis
Jerome Powell speech today
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech today regarding current monetary policy and future expectations for the U.S. economy. He is also expected to comment on the “Trump Big Beautiful Bill,” which could potentially increase the national debt. Powell’s remarks will provide valuable insight into the Fed’s upcoming policy direction. This speech is considered crucial and will be closely watched by Wall Street traders.
Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks
Recently, Ukraine launched a strong attack on Russia, targeting a nuclear bomber deep inside Russian territory. This appears to have significantly impacted the Russian military, causing substantial equipment losses. In response, Russia is likely to retaliate. At the same time, both countries are reportedly taking progressive steps toward dialogue. These recent developments may have a meaningful impact on the ongoing conflict and potential ceasefire efforts.
This is crucial from an Indian perspective, as India currently imports over 35% of its crude oil from Russia. If Russia takes any major action against Ukraine, it could trigger retaliation from Western countries in the form of increased sanctions. These sanctions may complicate India’s ability to purchase crude from Russia, potentially forcing India to turn to other suppliers where crude oil is more expensive, thereby increasing the burden on the Indian economy.
China Accuses U.S. Over Trade Deal
In a recent report, China has accused the U.S. of violating the trade deal, escalating tensions between the two countries. Previously, both nations have engaged in a tariff dispute, repeatedly raising tariffs on each other, creating a critical point in their trade relationship. Although a trade deal was signed a few days ago, both sides are expected to resume negotiations soon. However, such comments and accusations from both countries are raising serious concerns about the future of trade negotiations.
Previously, Trump stated that the U.S. had reached a positive development with China by securing a short-term trade deal. According to his statement, the U.S. aimed for a quick agreement with China. In support of this effort, the U.S. agreed to lower tariffs as a goodwill gesture. Trump also remarked that this deal was the “price” they paid for being the “Nice Guy.” These statements from both sides are now raising concerns about the long-term conclusion and stability of the trade deal.
Domestic Market Analysis
Tesla’s Manufacturing Plans in India
In a recent statement, Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy revealed that Tesla is currently not interested in manufacturing electric vehicles in India. This announcement comes after repeated negotiations with the automaker. Tesla’s reluctance to commit to immediate manufacturing in India is seen as a significant setback for the country’s ambition to attract global companies to set up local production.
This decision may be influenced by global developments affecting Tesla, including Elon Musk’s growing involvement in U.S. politics and the company’s association with cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin.
However, this situation could prove beneficial for domestic players such as Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, who are actively investing in and promoting electric vehicle production in India. Their continued efforts and progressive steps may shape the future of the Indian automobile sector.
India’s Q4 FY24–25 GDP Data Update
The recently released GDP data for Q4 of FY24–25 has surpassed expectations, indicating positive economic momentum. However, the stock market did not react positively to the news in today’s trade setup, as Nifty50 closed nearly 34 points lower.
Despite the muted market reaction, this strong GDP figure has likely contributed to meeting the RBI’s annual target of 6.5% GDP growth for FY25. Looking ahead, more economic forecasts are expected during the upcoming RBI policy meeting, including projections for FY26. The RBI may also provide comments on its outlook for the FY26 repo rate during that meeting.
Free Trade Agreements with Several Countries
India is actively pursuing global trade partnerships in a progressive and efficient manner. After signing an FTA with the UK, India is now making significant strides toward agreements with the USA and the European Union. Simultaneously, India is targeting countries like Oman and Chile for similar agreements.
Oman has long maintained good relations with India, while Chile is known for its rich lithium reserves—an increasingly important resource. India has already completed the first round of FTA talks with Chile, marking a promising step forward.
Such Free Trade Agreements are crucial, as they reduce trade barriers and create a more convenient and open business environment. These deals can greatly benefit Indian businesses by making international trade smoother and more cost-effective.
FII and DII Data Analysis
FIIs made one of the greatest contributions in May, pushing the Nifty even higher by buying nearly over ₹11,000 crore worth of Indian equities. However, looking at June and previous data, the Nifty 50 has been moving sideways, with FIIs’ contributions also being sideways, which is not very favorable for the Indian market.
In today’s data, FIIs have sold nearly ₹2,589 crore, while DAEs have bought approximately ₹5,313 crore worth of Indian equities. Therefore, the contributions of both FIIs and DAEs play a crucial role in the future growth of the Nifty 50.
Upcoming reports on policy, inflation forecasts, and GDP projections from the RBI will be important for encouraging FII contributions in the near future.
NIFTY 50 Technical Analysis
Previously, we mentioned that the NIFTY is forming a range between the 25,200 and 24,600 levels. The important point is that this pattern is continuing today as well. We also discussed that NIFTY IT plays a crucial role in pushing the NIFTY 50 higher, and companies like Infosys and TCS are impacted by the US business forecast.
Additionally, we highlighted that FIIs’ buying plays a significant role in driving the NIFTY 50 upward. Currently, both factors are showing a neutral stance, which is contributing to the NIFTY 50 remaining in a consolidation zone.
At the same time, it appears that the key support level is around 24,600 for now. The daytime candle is forming a hammer pattern, which strengthens this support zone. This may lead to a strong start for tomorrow’s trade setup, and the NIFTY could potentially bounce upward from this level.
Conclusion
Nifty made a sideways movement in the previous week, and the same pattern is continuing this week. Despite net buying from FIIs, the sideways movement across all sectors and pressure on the IT sector’s future growth is contributing to this consolidation.
However, the upcoming repo rate forecast, along with RBI’s projections for inflation and growth for the financial year 2026, will play a key role this week. Additionally, Jerome Powell is scheduled to make a statement today regarding the US economy, which is also important and could influence the market positively.
Taking an overall view, 24,600 remains a strong support level, and in the near term, Nifty may potentially reach 25,000 within the next few trade sessions.
