The Indian market has not shown any significant movement on any platform since Trump imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff, along with an additional 25% adjustment due to India’s purchase of Russian crude oil, stating that Indians are supporting the war. Despite these developments, the market has neither witnessed a notable upward movement nor experienced a significant decline.
Now, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, if India does not stop buying Russian crude oil or if negotiations between the U.S. and President Putin fail to yield meaningful results, tariffs could increase even further. These are the tactics and terminology being used by U.S. counterparts.
This makes the Trump–Putin talks very important from the Indian perspective as well. Looking at it from a broader view, there is a strong possibility that Russia will demand Crimea be officially recognized as part of Russian territory.
Additionally, Russia wants a written agreement ensuring that Ukraine will never join NATO, which it considers a threat. At the same time, several regions currently occupied by Russia are also expected to be claimed as Russian territory. Furthermore, President Putin is likely to put forward more conditions related to resources. In response, President Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not give up any of its land to Russia.
All these developments are going to be key, as the outcome will depend on how the negotiations between the Trump–Putin talks proceed. This will also mark the first time in six years that Trump and Putin will make an official visit to Alaska. One of the major issues expected to arise is the matter of land swapping. To increase pressure on Russia, Scott Bassett has stated that higher tariffs will be imposed if no deal is reached.
These are also being viewed as part of America’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, Bassett mentioned that tariffs could also be imposed on China. He emphasized that all these matters are on President Trump’s table for consideration. If any positive outcome emerges, it could prove very favorable for the Indian market as well.
There are also a few key points to note here, as both India and China are making a significant impact due to their strategic and deep relationships with Russia. India has stated that it will continue buying Russian crude oil, regardless of trade pressure from America. However, a key aspect is that Scott Bassett has said the U.S. wants the European Union to join these terms as well.
This is significant because the U.S. and the European Union together cover most of the Western market. If the European Union were to join these measures, it could have a major impact on Indian exporters, as the market would be heavily affected.
According to analysis, India has a strong trade surplus and future ambitions with the European Union. That said, India also maintains strong relations with Germany, France, and Italy—key members of the European Union—and has recently signed a free trade agreement with the UK. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the situation will turn out very negatively. Another key factor will be the statements from the European Union and India’s key allies after the summit ends.
India has recently announced that it will resume flights to China, which is significant because, since the Galwan Valley clashes, there have been no direct flights between India and Beijing. This development carries important considerations, as Prime Minister Modi is also scheduled to visit China for the ASEAN Summit, where both leaders are expected to meet. Such closer ties between India and China are not viewed favourably by the West, as they prefer these two nations to maintain some distance for long-term strategic reasons. If this rapprochement continues, it could be seen as unfavourable for the West in the long run, as it goes against their broader geopolitical objectives.
Trump–Putin talks is highly significant, as it will cover many critical issues. This first meeting also serves as a doorway to future talks. If major discussions take place and negotiations conclude in a way favorable to the U.S., it will be a major development.
The Trump administration is pushing hard to position itself as a global leader and is reportedly aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize, which aligns with Trump’s stated desire to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict. If such an agreement is reached, it could open the door to greater business opportunities, including increased military cooperation and other areas of national interest with Russia.
However, certain sectors—such as textiles and jewelry—are facing complications due to a newly announced 50% tax, which has significantly impacted their stock prices. On the other hand, some industries, such as iPhone manufacturing and others, have been exempted from this tax. While these exemptions may encourage further investment in India, such high taxes could still pose a hurdle for capital expenditure (capex) in other sectors, potentially affecting India’s long-term economic growth.